Democrats Are Acquiring A Lot of U.S. Territory, One Battleground State At a Time.

Vital battleground states are showing signs of a Democratic blue wave ahead of the November 2018 midterm elections.

Chart Created by: IQM

The balance of power within the U.S. House of Representatives and potentially the Senate could flip Democrat if new data from IQM proves accurate. The Republican Party currently holds 51 seats in the Senate. There are generally 49 Democratic votes in the Senate, 47 directly from Democratic Senators and two Independents who caucus with the party. In the House, the Republican Party holds 236 seats to Democrats’ 193 seats.

Both parties historically fail to turn out their base in midterm elections, but overall participation during the 2018 election cycle has been higher than usual. The intense energy of the midterm political season has encouraged new voters to register in unusually large numbers. If you support the Democratic party, these trends are good news.

IQM analyzed our most recent models from the nine key battleground states (Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan) plus New Hampshire. 66 percent of first time registered voters are Democrats. In addition, a majority of the nearly 1.1 million new voters tallied in the battleground states who switched party affiliation, went Democratic.

Blue is the New Black

The uptick in new Democratic voters may be a direct response to President Trump’s historically low approval rating. Donald Trump holds the lowest approval rating at the 606-day mark since President Harry Truman was in office. 

Courtesy: FiveThirty Eight

The 40 percent approval rate is only slightly higher from the President’s all-time low rating of 36.4 in December of last year. The idea that Trump’s presidency is creating an aversion to the Republican party among battleground state voters may threaten the efficacy of the Republican party’s reach in the 2018 midterms and 2020 presidential election.

We’re Indies

Increasingly the blue wave predictions made by most mainstream political pundits are verified by data. The models should start accounting for shifts on independents too. An NBC/Marist poll in the summer concluded that independent voters in two key swing states are breaking away from the President and the Republican party. Other findings in the poll included:

–Trump’s job rating among independent adults is below 40 percent in Ohio (37 percent) and Florida (39 percent).

–Independent voters also prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress in these two states — D+6 in Ohio, and D+8 in Florida.

–Additionally, fewer than one-in-three indie adults say Trump deserves re-election — 31 percent in Florida and 32 percent in Ohio.

–Independent voters by double-digit margins — 14 points in Florida and 29 points in Ohio — say their vote in November will be a message to check and balance Trump rather than to pass his agenda.

Methodology

Our political data partner L2 Political labeled voters as “switching” if they previously had registered with one party and later changed their registration to another party. IQM limited its analysis to switched voters within the last year.

L2 Political also provides the dates when voters registered for the first time. We isolated our analysis to those voters who registered after Dec. 31, 2017 and declared a party affiliation before the end of Q3 2018.

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